The Coronavirus Thread Part 2

[Right]

I would really prefer Moderna over Bharat Biotech and Astrazeneca.

Strange times we live in, never thought we would be pickin vaxx of choice.

 

[roun90]

1 hour ago, Jigsaw said:

So very true. 
 

Although a free model will ensure coverage for the poor and poorest, this better be well organised. 
 

As an example, in my complex there was “apparently” a Voter ID enrollment camp from 27th-29th for 2 hours each day. The “concerned authorities” informed this only on the final day halfway into the 1st hour. Obviously no one who genuinely needed one could get through. Just a formal ticking all the boxes operation. Pretty sure the table, umbrella and staff arrived only in the closing minutes of the final hour on the last day. 

 

 

No one cares about Voter ID (Media wise), but you can bet media will be showing people getting vaccinated all over the country - much like how they cover Ganesh Chaturthi in Maharashtra. It's a great PR win for all parties, so vaccines will be given. It will not be a case of "Umbrellas at the Closing Minute" as you described, but a full on mela. The question is:

 

1) How many vaccines will reach the intended public

2) Whether the vaccines will be stored properly

3) Whether the people giving the vaccines will be qualified to give it and inject it properly in the correct part of the body

4) Whether in such a huge crowd, people don't get Corona while standing in line (before getting to the vaccine) and the vaccine will act as a double dose (Vaccines generally administer a weak version of the virus to allow your body to get familiar with the disease and produce anti-bodies. Getting Corona first and at the same time getting a further dose will be very bad)

[Jigsaw]

8 minutes ago, roun90 said:

 

No one cares about Voter ID (Media wise), but you can bet media will be showing people getting vaccinated all over the country - much like how they cover Ganesh Chaturthi in Maharashtra. It's a great PR win for all parties, so vaccines will be given. It will not be a case of "Umbrellas at the Closing Minute" as you described, but a full on mela. The question is:

 

1) How many vaccines will reach the intended public

2) Whether the vaccines will be stored properly

3) Whether the people giving the vaccines will be qualified to give it and inject it properly in the correct part of the body

4) Whether in such a huge crowd, people don't get Corona while standing in line (before getting to the vaccine) and the vaccine will act as a double dose (Vaccines generally administer a weak version of the virus to allow your body to get familiar with the disease and produce anti-bodies. Getting Corona first and at the same time getting a further dose will be very bad)

Looks like grey market once again the better option, just like the PS5. Don’t mind overpaying if only to avoid the mad rush. 
 

Also if this disbursement is done at the micro-level like Aadhaar camps per complex or locality it might actually help with the crowd menace. 
 

I read someone posting about corporates trying to secure this for their employees too so that’s probably going to be most secure as it will be a proper controlled environment. 
 

Cannot wait to see my complex federation fuming at seeing people experiencing freedom. Might ban alcohol home deliveries out of spite ?

[roun90]

28 minutes ago, Jigsaw said:

I read someone posting about corporates trying to secure this for their employees too so that’s probably going to be most secure as it will be a proper controlled environment. 

 

I posted it and "They are in Talks", it's not 100% confirmed yet whether contract will be signed or not. That's as per the interview shown on TV. So your hopes of Permanent WFH are still alive

[Jigsaw]

Just now, roun90 said:

 

I posted it and "They are in Talks", it's not 100% confirmed yet whether contract will be signed or not. That's as per the interview shown on TV. So your hopes of Permanent WFH are still alive

 

As long as there are people who think repeatedly whining about missing their office space will earn them a promotion, corporates will want to bring everyone in.

 

Also am not an expert but MNC's get some tax sops or something for having workforce operating out of workplaces. Someone more knowledgeable on that front can probably address that better.

[KunjanPSD]

1 hour ago, adity said:

Bharat Biotech didn't even finish phase 3. How tf did it get approval. 

It got approval based upon rolling review. Pfizer also got EUA's approval this way.

[Right]

1 hour ago, kunjanp said:

It got approval based upon rolling review. Pfizer also got EUA's approval this way.

 

2 hours ago, adity said:

Bharat Biotech didn't even finish phase 3. How tf did it get approval. 

 

[Bird Bird Bird]

On 1/2/2021 at 3:16 PM, roun90 said:

 

According to him, they have conducted extensive tests on people and studied how the virus mutated over the course of the last 9 months to arrive at the conclusion. Currently there is 90% efficacy. The interview did not mention how long antibodies last. Just that 2 doses will be enough. Perhaps it might be enough permanently? I don't know - we don't take Polio Vaccines throughout life do we?

 

He was very clear though - The Vaccine will not prevent you from catching Covid at all. Just that it will reduce the severity for everyone and make it asymptomatic, so there will be no hospitalizations at all. They have also already tested and taken approvals from all labs throughout various countries (I forgot the name of the Indian govt. lab mentioned, sorry)

 

As far as public domain - it will come out later maybe?

 

He also mentioned upfront that he was very confident in the vaccine, to the point that he will take it himself once the final approval comes in and post it on the net. He's also sunk in truck loads of money (which we wil never see the likes of in our lives), so that might inspire confidence in us maybe?

 

They are also going to supply to govt. and companies - so it has to have been tested (even if it's not in public domain yet). Can't have every employee and all people who have taken vaccine from govt. falling sick, can we? It would spell the death of companies and even Govt. will have a very bad name.

 

Frankly, to me I'm just waiting for some working vaccine to come. I would like to be able to travel again and not look over my shoulder every footstep to see I accidentally don't come close to someone. Enough is enough. Please let something worthwhile come out.

 

On 1/2/2021 at 3:30 PM, Bird Bird Bird said:

Will post a longer answer once I'm on laptop. 

 

- The AZ/Oxford vaccine has an efficacy of 62% when 2 full doses are give, and 90% when 1 half and 1 full dose is given - WHY ? -  Nobody knows for now. But since the vaccines (in billions) were produced BEFORE the trial was over, so both the vaccines (one after 4-12 weeks) will have full dose. No idea if they are going to inject half and full or full and full. Doing half and full means they have to train a f**kton of healthcare workers, and frankly, training those workers is not easy since things will be lost to interpretation as we go from Tier 1 to 2 to 3 cities and towns and villages. Been into public health system for a fair bit, and unless things are taught REALLY WELL and for a LONG TIME (for example, Anganwadis, nursing dais etc), it's difficult to ensure compliance and understanding via local healthcare workers. Not to forget - expecting exact half dosing for billions of people by multitude of hands - statistically impossible. 

 

- Longevity of ABs - up in the air. No one knows for sure. Evolving situation, and a LOT of follow up is needed to understand the evolution of ABs. Hoping those trials will get as much funding as these vaccines. In my (very naive) opinion, this might become a yearly or bi-yearly vaccine (like the flu vaccine) - were every new shot is developed based on information about the community mutated contagion. Let's see. 

 

- Long shot to say EVERYONE will become asymptomatic after vaccination. Best case scenario is 90%, which means 10% (and practically, a higher number) of the populace will still be at risk. And again, even if you develop ABs, there's no guarantee that a new COVID infection will not make you sick or symptomatic. It's hyperbole (after all, he has invested billions into these vaccines - I guess a lot of power politics are into play as well, out of scope for me). Maybe you can get really sick depending on the mutation of the SARS-COV2. Maybe your body did not elicit any response to the vaccine and a full blown infection will land you in the ICU. We don't know. 

 

- Is the government ensuring enough stockpile of both doses of vaccines - considering they have to injected 4 to 12 weeks apart - so that those getting the 1st dose WILL DEFINITELY get the 2nd dose ? Based on numerous anecdotal reports, the 1st dose in itself is not enough to develop adequate ABs. 

 

- Testing: Big word in the above paragraph. Testing is basically your P1/2/3 data. Both Oxford/AZ (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#section-3d6acba1-acea-4be2-8dc9-b7e14e5b6583) and BioNtech/Pfizer (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577) have published interim analysis (linked) from P3 trials. A deeper analysis of AZ data is here at Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03504-w , and there is no information whether this vaccine (at least they studied asymptomatic cases) or other COVID vaccines (which have NOT studied asymptomatic cases at all) will decrease or affect asymptomatic cases, and hence there is no KNOWN information whether this mass inoculation will decrease asymptomatic transmission or not. A not-so-deep but still better than nothing of Pfizer data is at NEJM itself: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2034717?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

 

- Mr Poonawala getting vaccinated is nothing but a PR stunt. At some point, all of us will have to get vaccinated. The interim data shows good enough risk benefit ratio, but the data analysis is far from complete. Things can change when instead of 10000 volunteers, 10000k people are injected (and we are seeing anecdotal reports worldwide of some allergies being potentiated via these inoculations). We are going to be a part of a live trial, make no mistake. Tough times, can't help it. I really really hope we get a cocktail of drugs which are effective against this virus than getting vaccinated every now and then. 

 

- Moderna's data, for those interested, is here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389?query=recirc_mostViewed_railB_article

 

On 1/2/2021 at 3:28 PM, Jigsaw said:

Doc Bhaiyya

 

Asymptotic meaning no hospitalisation means? Would it still continue to be contagious? As in if a vaccinated person catches it, will/can they still infect others like now? 
 

 

 

Hyperbole hai sir. There's nothing to suggest that everyone taking the vaccine will turn asymptomatic. You might still get sick/need hospitalization. If we are able to get 90% efficacy in India, it will be nothing short of a miracle, and pretty much, an ideal scenario. 

 

Asymptomatic people can still actively throw infectious particles. If the vaccinated person has ABs, they will still be safe (might get some fever/malaise/light cold etc). 

 

4 hours ago, roun90 said:

 

No one cares about Voter ID (Media wise), but you can bet media will be showing people getting vaccinated all over the country - much like how they cover Ganesh Chaturthi in Maharashtra. It's a great PR win for all parties, so vaccines will be given. It will not be a case of "Umbrellas at the Closing Minute" as you described, but a full on mela. The question is:

 

1) How many vaccines will reach the intended public

2) Whether the vaccines will be stored properly

3) Whether the people giving the vaccines will be qualified to give it and inject it properly in the correct part of the body

4) Whether in such a huge crowd, people don't get Corona while standing in line (before getting to the vaccine) and the vaccine will act as a double dose (Vaccines generally administer a weak version of the virus to allow your body to get familiar with the disease and produce anti-bodies. Getting Corona first and at the same time getting a further dose will be very bad)

 

Storage will be the main issue, followed by proper injection (if half dose full dose regimen is to be followed for AZ vaccine). 2-8 degrees honestly doesn't sound bad, but I have seen atrocious conditions of storage in towns and villages, so God knows. 

And yeah, people will still have to take precautions till the 2nd dose is given, and potentially 3-4 weeks following that to produce lasting (semi-lasting ?) ABs. 

This has to be a PPP. Either of them alone will not be able to reach out to the whole of India. 

 

4 hours ago, adity said:

Bharat Biotech didn't even finish phase 3. How tf did it get approval. 

3 hours ago, kunjanp said:

It got approval based upon rolling review. Pfizer also got EUA's approval this way.

 

There is P3 interim data for 10k volunteers - submitted to SEC at DCGI: https://theprint.in/health/bharat-biotechs-covaxin-given-conditional-nod-based-on-incomplete-phase-3-trial-results-data/578389/

 

It's not in public domain yet. Their P1 and P2 data were published WITHOUT any peer review as pre-prints (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.21.20248643v1.full.pdf). 

 

4 hours ago, Jigsaw said:

Looks like grey market once again the better option, just like the PS5. Don’t mind overpaying if only to avoid the mad rush. 
 

Also if this disbursement is done at the micro-level like Aadhaar camps per complex or locality it might actually help with the crowd menace. 
 

I read someone posting about corporates trying to secure this for their employees too so that’s probably going to be most secure as it will be a proper controlled environment. 
 

Cannot wait to see my complex federation fuming at seeing people experiencing freedom. Might ban alcohol home deliveries out of spite ?

 

For the love of God, no grey markets please. You have no visibility of the vaccine - whether fake or real, you will be paying 10-1000 times the actual retail cost, you will drive the market in such a way that many co-morbids and geriatric population will lose on essential vaccination since black marketeers will poach on stocks (same happened with RemD), and people without money/connections will be f**ked the most. 

 

And considering you need 2 doses, not one, a black market will be extremely dystopian. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Bird Bird Bird
f**king grammar

[Jigsaw]

@Bird Bird BirdThanks bhai for that detailed explanation. I wa kidding on the grey part but yes for the size of our country this will be a Herculean effort to pull off. 
 

I just don’t want to go back to work. And I stay less than 5 mins away. 

[hope]

My mother above 50 will get vaccinated first as per the plan. Absolute no if she has to go to camps to get the vaccine. Catching an infection there is great risk.

 

One nurse tested positive after getting vaccine in UK. God knows when she caught it but immunity develops after some days only.

 

Hope some privatisation is there or crowds are managed.

 

BC har cheez mein tension hai aaj kal. 

[Bird Bird Bird]

10 minutes ago, hope said:

One nurse tested positive after getting vaccine in UK. God knows when she caught it but immunity develops after some days only.

 

You need 2 doses for effective AB development. Can easily catch after 1st dose. 

 

And that's why Pfizer is not taking any ownership's of UK's decision of giving only 1 dose for now, and 2nd dose after 12 weeks. Their vaccine was studied with doses 3 weeks apart only. UK is injecting them 3 months apart. 

 

Science is for dummies, chumps. 

[Walker]

@Bird Bird Bird what's laughable really is Poonawala saying he will take the first dose. Even if he has a mild to adverse effect the man will get the best care possible. Can't say the same for everyone else.

 

This is not to say I'm not thrilled but there's so much at stake a bit of caution would be prudent no?

[KunjanPSD]

5 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

You need 2 doses for effective AB development. Can easily catch after 1st dose. 

 

And that's why Pfizer is not taking any ownership's of UK's decision of giving only 1 dose for now, and 2nd dose after 12 weeks. Their vaccine was studied with doses 3 weeks apart only. UK is injecting them 3 months apart. 

 

Science is for dummies, chumps. 

By the time it's available for the general public, I assume these will be available in market as well. So there might be atleast 6-7 vaccines (Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer, BharatBio, Cadilla, Sputnik/DRL) approved and available in the market. At that point, how would one make the decision of choosing one of them?

[Bird Bird Bird]

3 minutes ago, Walker said:

@Bird Bird Bird what's laughable really is Poonawala saying he will take the first dose. Even if he has a mild to adverse effect the man will get the best care possible. Can't say the same for everyone else.

 

This is not to say I'm not thrilled but there's so much at stake a bit of caution would be prudent no?

 

What will you caution against ? 

 

The interim data has shown good safety, though we don't know long term safety profile. It is almost impossible to predict the AEs which might need hospitalization. 

 

Him taking the dose is a PR stunt, considering all of us have to take one of the vaccines at some point of time. 

 

Unless some serious AEs develop en masse, I don't see the vaccination drive stopping anytime soon. 

 

1 minute ago, kunjanp said:

By the time it's available for the general public, I assume these will be available in market as well. So there might be atleast 6-7 vaccines (Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer, BharatBio, Cadilla, Sputnik/DRL) approved and available in the market. At that point, how would one make the decision of choosing one of them?

 

I don't think so they will be available so quickly for purchase. First most purchases will be governmental (India, US and almost all other countries), and only when that stockpile is somewhat full will it come to general availability. I do think once they are out, black marketing will happen. It's inevitable considering the scarcity, at least for a short period of time. 

 

Choosing between one - well, leave it to your doctor (unless you can read and interpret a clinical trial). Plus if any of the vaccines have any major AEs, surely it will be out in the news ASAP. The media loves doomsday scenarios. 

[hope]

From the PM

 

[playstationdude]

How will the countries be "covid free" with Vaccine, considering the vaccine does not make you immune to catching the virus?

This just sends such a wrong message to people and businesses.

Edited January 3, 2021 by playstationdude

[playstationdude]

1 minute ago, adity said:

Look if we can get the old and at risk people vaccinated so they don't show serious symptoms from the virus, that's half the battle won. That's the one reason we're staying at our homes for so long. I don't we'll ever eradicate the virus, just make it irrelevant where it's just mostly harmless. 

Yes but the way they are messaging is sending out the wrong signals to idiots. Even our housemaid keeps saying " Kuch corono varona nahi hai, ab sui aagyi hai" and was taking 0 precautions, we had to let her go.

Same is with party hard fools who will use vaccine as an excuse to make gatherings.

 

Not to mention if the govt send out such a message, most companies will also try to force employees to office premises under the logic of vaccines.

[Jigsaw]

7 minutes ago, playstationdude said:

Yes but the way they are messaging is sending out the wrong signals to idiots. Even our housemaid keeps saying " Kuch corono varona nahi hai, ab sui aagyi hai" and was taking 0 precautions, we had to let her go.

Same is with party hard fools who will use vaccine as an excuse to make gatherings.

 

Not to mention if the govt send out such a message, most companies will also try to force employees to office premises under the logic of vaccines.

This. This is my fear. ?

[Big Boss]

1 minute ago, Jigsaw said:

This. This is my fear. ?

Mine too. The companies are stupid. They somehow thing people do marvelous work in office compared to home. 

[Snake]

8 minutes ago, Jigsaw said:

This. This is my fear. ?

 

6 minutes ago, Big Boss said:

Mine too. The companies are stupid. They somehow thing people do marvelous work in office compared to home. 

 

The grapevine is already buzzing with calling back people back to office because, vaccine aay na..everything will be ok