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KnackChap

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6 hours ago, KunjanPSD said:

Listing gains ke liye hi toh karna hai?

Or do you intend to hold?

Listing gains but always make sure its not a bad company otherwise few bad days in the market and it will be listed for a disc.

4 hours ago, OnlyConsultant said:

How many accs do you guys usually use to apply for ipos? @KnackChap @Bird Bird Bird @KunjanPSD @rushaboswal @SuperT @Root

Read somewhere here or on reddit that one applied using 8 PANs..
 

Total 4. all family. Never got more than one but money is anyways sitting idle , Esp on mom's and brother acc.

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4 hours ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

Kal to girega. Will wait and add at 275-ish levels. 

Can't take anything with guarantee in this market, it might just take off. Just need to keep looking at the facts.

 

Exports increasing 33% YoY with EBITDA margins still at 50.1%.

All the naysayers are forgetting that Europe & Turkey are exporting more & more solar glass each quarter and have anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar glass & modules.

It looks to be quite an early game for BR, good opportunity to stock up even at 300.

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56 minutes ago, Mr. Comingle said:

Which one has more chances statistically for getting IPO allotment?

Applying for 4 IPOs or applying for 1 IPO with 4 different accounts? 

I think the latter but my brain is not working to figure out why. 

The latter but more importantly in both cases it will be insignificant.

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10 hours ago, KunjanPSD said:

The latter but more importantly in both cases it will be insignificant.

Won't it double for every new application. 

For eg - if an ipo is 8 times oversubscribed, you have 1/8 chance of getting it. But if you have 2 applications, you have 2/8=1/4 chance of getting it. Similarly it goes up to 1/2 if you have 4 applications. 

I'm sure I'm doing this wrong but not sure where. 

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18 minutes ago, Mr. Comingle said:

Won't it double for every new application. 

For eg - if an ipo is 8 times oversubscribed, you have 1/8 chance of getting it. But if you have 2 applications, you have 2/8=1/4 chance of getting it. Similarly it goes up to 1/2 if you have 4 applications. 

I'm sure I'm doing this wrong but not sure where. 

That's correct but when you are dealing with such large numbers the probability doesn't always reflect the reality.

 

Expectation value is a better metric i.e. if you repeat the same N number of times what will your avg. value be and given that the odds remain the same, chances of getting an IPO will considerably drop (i shouldn't have said that it will be insignificant) as we don't know whether we will be dealt the avg. up or avg. down case.

 

Probability as a metric is good for simple instances and maybe I am over analysing this but there have been occasions where my friends applied for more lots than the subscription number and didn't get any.

Edited by KunjanPSD
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35 minutes ago, Mr. Comingle said:

Won't it double for every new application. 

For eg - if an ipo is 8 times oversubscribed, you have 1/8 chance of getting it. But if you have 2 applications, you have 2/8=1/4 chance of getting it. Similarly it goes up to 1/2 if you have 4 applications. 

I'm sure I'm doing this wrong but not sure where. 

Pretty sure that's not how it works .

Otherwise if you apply with 8 times for the above IPO then you should have 100% chance of getting an allotment which is not the case . Even if you apply with 8 pan there remains a small chance you may not get one .

Chances of getting success are calculated like this . 

1 -  chances of not getting subscriptions in all applications ( which is a function of and/x) 

For 4 applications - 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 = 0.586 

Hence chances of success 1 - .586 = .414 or 41.4% 

For 8 applications - .586 * .586 = .343

Chance of Success 1 -.343 = .637 or 63.7 %

Edited by Krazyniks
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19 minutes ago, Mr. Comingle said:

Won't it double for every new application. 

For eg - if an ipo is 8 times oversubscribed, you have 1/8 chance of getting it. But if you have 2 applications, you have 2/8=1/4 chance of getting it. Similarly it goes up to 1/2 if you have 4 applications. 

I'm sure I'm doing this wrong but not sure where. 

 

I am no statistician, but I think to improve your odds and half them, you would need to hold half of the pool. 

 

So, lets say there are 100 applications (not applicants) and 5 shares, the odds per application is 1 in 20. Now assume that you hold 50% of that application pool. The per application odds, remain at 1/20, but the probability of who holds those applications kicks in, and that is 50% in your favor. So, the only way to reduce your personal odds to 1/10 is to hold 50% of 100 applications...... I think. I could be wrong.:fear1:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Krazyniks said:

Pretty sure that's not how it works .

Otherwise if you apply with 8 times for the above IPO then you should have 100% chance of getting an allotment which is not the case . Even if you apply with 8 pan there remains a small chance you may not get one .

Chances of getting success are calculated like this . 

1 -  chances of not getting subscriptions in all applications ( which is a function of and - * ) 

For 4 applications - 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 = 0.586 

Hence chances of success 1 - .586 = .414 or 41.4% 

For 8 applications - .586 * .586 = .343

Chance of Success 1 -.343 = .637 or 63.7 %

But the events are mutually independent.

Result of the first application doesn't affect the result of the 2nd, vice versa and so on.

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33 minutes ago, Krazyniks said:

Pretty sure that's not how it works .

Otherwise if you apply with 8 times for the above IPO then you should have 100% chance of getting an allotment which is not the case . Even if you apply with 8 pan there remains a small chance you may not get one .

Chances of getting success are calculated like this . 

1 -  chances of not getting subscriptions in all applications ( which is a function of and/x) 

For 4 applications - 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 * 7/8 = 0.586 

Hence chances of success 1 - .586 = .414 or 41.4% 

For 8 applications - .586 * .586 = .343

Chance of Success 1 -.343 = .637 or 63.7 %

Converse of not getting allotment in all applications is getting allotment in all IPOs.

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