The Stock Market thread

[KunjanPSD]

54 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

 

This is exactly what is even said in the IDFC presentation. The CEO clearly calls out that most analysts are busy just looking at quarter results and ROE, and they're missing the big picture of what we are doing. Honestly, the way they have talked about it can only be done by someone super confident of how to navigate a ship even in difficult times. Plus the guy is a legend if you look at his history. He's probably the only 2nd guy to turn DFI into a retail banking system. 

I'm bullish in long term. 

I am not saying that Strides is a better long term bet than IDFC.

I am saying that if it's long term then it 1 or 2 or 3 quarters' results don't matter and that holds the same for Strides and IDFC.

In IDFC's case, Voda exposure is a dagger and in Strides, well, they made some very bold decisions as well.

The management is tried and tested in both cases. 

 

If you can see future earnings in the case of IDFC then it should be better for Strides.

There is no guarantee that IDFC can't fall 30% from this level as well.

 

Either for someone a company bombed so hard in 1 quarter that the entire thesis is now invalid or there wasn't much research done in the first place to build conviction.

 

I am happily holding my strides and neuland position even now. Will now look at IDFC, but it's a long road ahead.

[Bird Bird Bird]

4 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

I am not saying that Strides is a better long term bet than IDFC.

I am saying that if it's long term then it 1 or 2 or 3 quarters' results don't matter and that holds the same for Strides and IDFC.

In IDFC's case, Voda exposure is a dagger and in Strides, well, they made some very bold decisions as well.

The management is tried and tested in both cases. 

 

If you can see future earnings in the case of IDFC then it should be better for Strides.

There is no guarantee that IDFC can't fall 30% from this level as well.

 

Either for someone a company bombed so hard in 1 quarter that the entire thesis is now invalid or there wasn't much research done in the first place to build conviction.

 

I am happily holding my strides and neuland position even now. Will now look at IDFC, but it's a long road ahead.

 

Nothing against Strides, but I can still get Stellis post demerger, maybe at a higher value, but growth prospect will always be there. 

Plus in the growth phase of a nation, the first industry to grow at exponential rate is finance. India's growth story is just beginning, and I'll bet more on finance and macro factors (like steel etc) than CDMOs in the short term (3-7 years). 

Does not mean that other sectors will not grow, but some sectors are ripe for exponential growth at the moment. 

Heck, CDMO/Pharma valuations have recently started improving, and I'll definitely be invested in them, but PF bias will be on finance, real estate and other macro sectors. 

[rushab oswal]

dp
 

Edited August 25, 2021 by rushaboswal

[rushab oswal]

23 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

Either for someone a company bombed so hard in 1 quarter that the entire thesis is now invalid or there wasn't much research done in the first place to build conviction.

 

This honestly is why i got out.

45 minutes ago, KnackChap said:

 

Whats your avg buying price. 

50-51

[Bird Bird Bird]

2 minutes ago, rushaboswal said:

dp
 

 

Arre single post bhi nahi hui. 

 

BTW, who all are into technical analysis here ? 

 

Was looking in Jub Ingrevia:

 

 

Don't see any major CS/harmonic pattern except simple Dow theory (making higher highs and lower lows continuously - so in bull phase). Plus I think RSI is in hidden bullish divergence from the price (marked in the chart), hence expecting bullishness in short term. 

 

Any other views ?

[rushab oswal]

another Dp.

Edited August 25, 2021 by rushaboswal

[KunjanPSD]

10 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

Nothing against Strides, but I can still get Stellis post demerger, maybe at a higher value, but growth prospect will always be there. 

Plus in the growth phase of a nation, the first industry to grow at exponential rate is finance. India's growth story is just beginning, and I'll bet more on finance and macro factors (like steel etc) than CDMOs in the short term (3-7 years). 

Does not mean that other sectors will not grow, but some sectors are ripe for exponential growth at the moment. 

Heck, CDMO/Pharma valuations have recently started improving, and I'll definitely be invested in them, but PF bias will be on finance, real estate and other macro sectors. 

Stelis is a major part of the puzzle but Strides's business sans stelis is no slouch.

All this time they have been nurturing Stelis (negligible revenue) and giving YoY growth.

 

Twitter analysts were going gaga over Strides and used to say that in best case they'll get Stelis at book value and in worse case they'll be stuck with a growing business.

Each one of them reduced their stakes in Strides after last quarter. Lol.

 

Same happened with IDFC as well.

 

But anyway, finance sector obviously is the first beneficiary in national growth.

And all I have read about IDFC till now seems encouraging but you'll see cross-selling pick up fairly soon.

Just after their merger, they were hell bent on their future vision of cross-selling possibilities especially with reducing NIM. 

Their SA interest has dropped from 7 to 4% over last few years because of the same.

 

Have to see how Voda thing plays out and how the bank actually delivers. In current scenario rural financing profit has butchered every small finance bank.

Surely interesting though.

 

 

[rushab oswal]

2 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

Arre single post bhi nahi hui. 

Its becoming quite frustrating posting from mobile on the forums

[Bird Bird Bird]

Just now, KunjanPSD said:

In current scenario rural financing profit has butchered every small finance bank.

 

I am putting more money in small finance banks tbh. These are the ones who will eventually streamline loans in rural areas - decrease the dependence on loan sharks. There will be an inflection point, and I just want to be ready for it. 

[Bird Bird Bird]

3 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

Twitter analysts were going gaga over Strides and used to say that in best case they'll get Stelis at book value and in worse case they'll be stuck with a growing business.

Each one of them reduced their stakes in Strides after last quarter. Lol.

 

f**k Twitter analysts. Except a few, most are a joke. 

[rushab oswal]

5 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

I am putting more money in small finance banks tbh. These are the ones who will eventually streamline loans in rural areas - decrease the dependence on loan sharks. There will be an inflection point, and I just want to be ready for it. 

Kotak bank can also be worth studying. 

 

4 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

f**k Twitter analysts. Except a few, most are a joke. 

If you can share some good ones. 

[KunjanPSD]

7 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

Arre single post bhi nahi hui. 

 

BTW, who all are into technical analysis here ? 

 

Was looking in Jub Ingrevia:

 

 

Don't see any major CS/harmonic pattern except simple Dow theory (making higher highs and lower lows continuously - so in bull phase). Plus I think RSI is in hidden bullish divergence from the price (marked in the chart), hence expecting bullishness in short term. 

 

Any other views ?

How is it bullish divergence if during the same period the stock price trendline has +ve slope but RSI trendline has -ve slope?

 

Anyway, looks like a low volume retest of the 2nd box breakout, will prefer a bounce with good volumes to confirm.

Plotting EMA won't help much because stock price is gonna be away above 50 & 200 period, can look at fib levels to see if the price is resting on a level support or not. Will give more clarity.

 

Fundamentally? Stock has been peddled a lot on Twitter and personally I don't want to pay a penny above 600 as of right now.

I entered at 590 and since just bought 1 extra share at 650 to track the breakout.

 

Same way for BR. Stock came down to 276 and never triggered my 275 order and hustled back up. I seriously wonder how many of these buyers know what they are getting into.

[Bird Bird Bird]

6 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

How is it bullish divergence if during the same period the stock price trendline has +ve slope but RSI trendline has -ve slope?

 

Regular bullish divergence is different from hidden bullish divergence. 

 

Bullish divergence is when stock is making stock is making lower lows but RSI is making higher lows. Hidden Bullish Divergence is when stock is making higher lows and RSI is making lower lows. 

[KunjanPSD]

13 minutes ago, rushaboswal said:

Kotak bank can also be worth studying. 

Kotak is too big to benefit from the small finance sector.

It will benefit but mostly because of being a large, end to end player like HDFC.

 

In small finance, I only see Equitas and Ujjivan as decent players but the latter is under quite a heat because of upper management resigning recently. 

 

I'll have to read up IDFC but yeah, Kotak and Equitas look the best to me for now.

[rushab oswal]

6 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

Kotak is too big to benefit from the small finance sector.

It will benefit but mostly because of being a large, end to end player like HDFC.

 

In small finance, I only see Equitas and Ujjivan as decent players but the latter is under quite a heat because of upper management resigning recently. 

 

I'll have to read up IDFC but yeah, Kotak and Equitas look the best to me for now.

Au small finance bank?

[Bird Bird Bird]

7 minutes ago, rushaboswal said:

Au small finance bank?

 

Look at Bank Nifty components + Equitas. 

[Bird Bird Bird]

 

Exaggerated Bullish Divergence (stock making multiple bottoms at same price points - RSI making higher lows) in April/May in IDFC. Gave a superb move thereafter. 

 

Just studying and sharing. 

[rushab oswal]

dp

Edited August 25, 2021 by rushaboswal

[rushab oswal]

6 minutes ago, KunjanPSD said:

Kotak is too big to benefit from the small finance sector.

It will benefit but mostly because of being a large, end to end player like HDFC.

 

In small finance, I only see Equitas and Ujjivan as decent players but the latter is under quite a heat because of upper management resigning recently. 

 

I'll have to read up IDFC but yeah, Kotak and Equitas look the best to me for now.

Au small finance bank?

[Bird Bird Bird]

Entered IDFC with a small position to ensure continuous tracking.