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Reasons why I feel the markets would go further down

 

1) Fed tapering around the corner

 

2) holiday season approaching in the US. Hence more investment opportunities in the American Markets

 

3) repeal of farm laws

 

4) FIIs exiting the market maybe due to points 1 and 2. 

 

I think in the day or two, it would go down to the 16k range and then stabilize, maybe. 

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20 minutes ago, radicaldude said:

Reasons why I feel the markets would go further down

 

1) Fed tapering around the corner

 

2) holiday season approaching in the US. Hence more investment opportunities in the American Markets

 

3) repeal of farm laws

 

4) FIIs exiting the market maybe due to points 1 and 2. 

 

I think in the day or two, it would go down to the 16k range and then stabilize, maybe. 

Historically, I don't see 2, 3, 4 being a problem.

1 will probably trigger a dip because our market has a habit of looking to the West.

 

Chart certainly shows uncertainty, lower channel trendline is hovering close but more importantly Nifty has a habit of touching 50WMA in such corrections (around 16000 right now and fast increasing).

Let's see how the channel support works out.

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My analysis so far for Nifty:

 

ZVDkWlx.png

 

Weekly chart had H&S formation + regular bearish RSI divergence (wrt price). There is a breakdown as expected. The shoulder target was 17416, met today. The head target is around 17150-ish. 

 

dH6jTtM.png

 

Today's fall stopped pretty much at 38.2 fib level on Daily/Weekly charts (if base is taken as the most recent significant consolidation level). 

 

qRDNbah.png

 

The Base line on Ichi Weekly, while not flat, shouldn't move much for the next week or so (unless market falls like crazy, and breaches 15500), and hence I am expecting a good support at 16990 levels. 

 

Any bounce from these levels (17000-current) should give good returns. 

 

Fun times ! 

Edited by Bird Bird Bird
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Keep up the good discussions guys. I like it.


Are you guys adding stocks in this dip or looking how this all fares out? I couldn't resist and keep adding stocks like Happiest Minds, Tata Power, Tata Steel. Fresh bought Divi's lab. Just started with 2, let's see how low it can get.

Tomorrow, will se if Aarti Industries further dips, will buy at 900 levels.

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5 hours ago, dante77 said:

Happiest Minds

This is an expensive one 😅, its down by a fsit margin tough so you night end up making money.

 

10 hours ago, KunjanPSD said:

Historically, I don't see 2, 3, 4 being a problem.

1 will probably trigger a dip because our market has a habit of looking to the West.

 

Chart certainly shows uncertainty, lower channel trendline is hovering close but more importantly Nifty has a habit of touching 50WMA in such corrections (around 16000 right now and fast increasing).

Let's see how the channel support works out.

3 is a bug deal too. This shows government has no spine and FII’s might not like it.

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At 1300-1400, Paytm doesn't seem like a bad choice for a basket approach.

They have been playing the tune of their Chinese investors with their growth heavy approach, profits are yet to be seen.

They are already foraying into micro-lending which lends some hope but competition is coming fast.

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