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KnackChap

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11 minutes ago, dante77 said:

don't choose based on low NAV and all. 

 

That's different. Don't judge fund A vs B based ok NAV. But for the same fund, you can definitely do lumpsum. 

I never do SIP. Somehow it never sits with me. Always do lumpsum when market is down. Of course, you don't know the bottom, so keep your investment in tranches. For example, if you've to invest 1 lac, you can decide to do 10*10k or 5*20k or 2*50k. 

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2 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

That's different. Don't judge fund A vs B based ok NAV. But for the same fund, you can definitely do lumpsum. 

I never do SIP. Somehow it never sits with me. Always do lumpsum when market is down. Of course, you don't know the bottom, so keep your investment in tranches. For example, if you've to invest 1 lac, you can decide to do 10*10k or 5*20k or 2*50k. 

To simplify, you invest in mfs the same way you invest in stocks. Nav = stock price for all intents and purposes. 

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That's different. Don't judge fund A vs B based ok NAV. But for the same fund, you can definitely do lumpsum. 
I never do SIP. Somehow it never sits with me. Always do lumpsum when market is down. Of course, you don't know the bottom, so keep your investment in tranches. For example, if you've to invest 1 lac, you can decide to do 10*10k or 5*20k or 2*50k. 
Thinking of same. That is why haven't set a mandate yet. Worst case, do both.
To simplify, you invest in mfs the same way you invest in stocks. Nav = stock price for all intents and purposes. 
Yes. That basically sums up the conversation.

Crazy no 'Finfluencers' ever explained this.
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39 minutes ago, DinJo said:

Actually you cannot time mf nav dates so go blind and invest in 3-4 funds max and also go with direct fund

 

Why can't you time MF NAV dates ? It's literally tracking the stocks in its portfolio. You can make a basket of the high weightage ones (for your MF) on Kite, and predict if the NAV will go up or down. 

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11 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

Why can't you time MF NAV dates ? It's literally tracking the stocks in its portfolio. You can make a basket of the high weightage ones (for your MF) on Kite, and predict if the NAV will go up or down. 

You have to realise how hard that is. I have had stocks in my portfolio which just keep going up indefinitely and some which are just falling knives. I mean who predicted nifty will increase by 1.5% today?

Complexity only compounds when tracking a mf (or 4) which could total to dozens of stocks. 

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Actually you cannot time mf nav dates so go blind and invest in 3-4 funds max and also go with direct fund
Why not? Market usually corrects itself time to time. Add Funds on that day and then even if market recovers. It won't recover fully. So you'll at least get the same NAV if not more. I experimented this and as you can see from the screenshot I was quite successful.
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2 hours ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

Why can't you time MF NAV dates ? It's literally tracking the stocks in its portfolio. You can make a basket of the high weightage ones (for your MF) on Kite, and predict if the NAV will go up or down. 

In the long term the difference between manually tracking it and SIP averaging out is minimal. It's impossible to consistently time the market, at least for a normal retail trader. Consistently being the key factor there.

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6 hours ago, Mr. Comingle said:

You have to realise how hard that is. I have had stocks in my portfolio which just keep going up indefinitely and some which are just falling knives. I mean who predicted nifty will increase by 1.5% today?

Complexity only compounds when tracking a mf (or 4) which could total to dozens of stocks. 

 

4 hours ago, El Tigre Chino said:

In the long term the difference between manually tracking it and SIP averaging out is minimal. It's impossible to consistently time the market, at least for a normal retail trader. Consistently being the key factor there.

 

You can track the ones with high enough weightage to move the NAV. One cannot be a 100% correct all the time, but you can be correct MOST of the time. 

I guess it also depends on the type of MF. Most large cap/blue chip will mostly move with the market. Diversified or small/mid cap can be a bit difficult to follow. 

 

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8 hours ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

 

Why can't you time MF NAV dates ? It's literally tracking the stocks in its portfolio. You can make a basket of the high weightage ones (for your MF) on Kite, and predict if the NAV will go up or down. 

If you look at average of last 10 years sip you will not find any difference just because there are too many events. 

 

If you are really into timing for MF then you should not invest in MF. 

 

Here is the stats which explains https://freefincal.com/best-date-start-mutual-fund-sip/

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1 hour ago, DinJo said:

If you look at average of last 10 years sip you will not find any difference just because there are too many events. 

 

If you are really into timing for MF then you should not invest in MF. 

 

Here is the stats which explains https://freefincal.com/best-date-start-mutual-fund-sip/

 

That article is about "finding the best date for SIP", not SIP vs lumpsum. 

The reason SIP is preferable is because it's convenient, and MF companies bombard you to ensure they lock you in for future investments. 

SIP also helps with investing discipline. 

Lumpsum has the benefit to somewhat time the market - and you can do it on a monthly basis too based on tranching.

Personally, I always prefer lumpsum as that's my style. There's no right or wrong here. 

 

1 hour ago, DinJo said:

Also prediction doesn't work at all. 

 

You can predict NAV movement (up or down) based on stock prices.

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Yeah lumpsum is preferred if you have cash in hand. 

 

I still don't believe you can predict NAV movement since Portfolio disclosure happens on quarterly basis. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DinJo said:

since Portfolio disclosure happens on quarterly basis. 

Its monthly.

 

2 hours ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

You can predict NAV movement (up or down) based on stock prices.

If we are in bullish trend, assume the market keeps going up from 1st to 31s of the month with very little to no falls.  Even if it falls on 15th of a month, the NAV might still be higher than what it would have been on 5th (for ex).

But I too agree that you can spread out the monthly allocation to 5K * 4 times month or something like that with cut off dates for sure. i.e. we should definitely invest the first 5K before the 10th of the month etc.  Else, we will end up waiting and who knows the NAV wouldn't come down to the price it was on the 5th of that month!

 

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7 minutes ago, Pacifier said:

Its monthly.

 

If we are in bullish trend, assume the market keeps going up from 1st to 31s of the month with very little to no falls.  Even if it falls on 15th of a month, the NAV might still be higher than what it would have been on 5th (for ex).

But I too agree that you can spread out the monthly allocation to 5K * 4 times month or something like that with cut off dates for sure. i.e. we should definitely invest the first 5K before the 10th of the month etc.  Else, we will end up waiting and who knows the NAV wouldn't come down to the price it was on the 5th of that month!

 

 

Yeah. I agree. Maybe invest 4 times a month, once a week. Or twice every fortnight. 

Nothing right or wrong. Wealth will anyway be created in long term. 

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2 minutes ago, Bird Bird Bird said:

Nothing right or wrong. Wealth will anyway be created in long term. 

Agree. What works for you is fine as long as you're putting the money in.

 

From my personal experience, the first two years I realised that in my attempts to time the market with just lumpsum and I'd end up not investing, waiting it out for a dip and then ending up putting in money at a higher cost.

 

Currently a hybrid system of regular monthly investments + additional lumpsums during dips works a lot better for me, returns wise.

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The difference between investing all of your money at the peak of a bull run vs at the bottom of a bear run will be minimal and negligible, 10 years down the line.

 

So maintain SIPs in tranches i.e. 4 times a month.

Keep money aside for lumpsum investment when the market dips.

 

As for tracking the NAV, possible but with extrapolation. You can track the basket of stocks but you can't track the error due inflow and outflow of investments on a daily basis.

Should be able to get a reasonable estimate nonetheless.

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