The Coronavirus Thread Part 2

[KunjanPSD]

16 minutes ago, achilles said:

 

Really thin straws here. The key part of the equation you're missing is carrier droplets and volumetric dispersion. I'll be providing citations below. If you can get it sitting inside your car, you can damn well get sitting inside your apartment, house, bathroom, or any place that hasn't been airtight since December 2019. 

Right, and the way to remedy that is to create more rules, even asinine ones. 

It really can't. But sure, wear a mask to be on the safe side. No sarcasm intended. 

Summary article

Useful links: 

1. Irish study: Outdoor transmission accounts for .1% of 232164 COVID cases; also similar results for data studied in China, Japan, etc.

2. National Lib of Med: risk of outdoor transmission lower

I did not say that you can't get infected while staying in your house but the probability of that happening is much less less than getting infected while in a car.

Plus, not wearing a mask in home is not really avoidable while it is while you are driving alone.

Explain to me what do you mean by "carrier droplets" and "volumetric dispersion" and then I will tell you how much these terms are dependent on parameters.

 

Firstly, you are extrapolating the study done in Ireland to a much more densely populated area like India especially Delhi. No academic journal in their right mind will ever do this.

Secondly, the articles you have cited are reviews which take numerous small sample size, independent studies to extrapolate, again that does not mean much because the exponential growth in a network can't really be tested with such low data.

Further these reviews take studies which have used archival method in order to get data, i.e. basically word of mouth. How can someone particularly point out from where they got the virus? I don't think anyone will say that they got it while being in free air as compared to a congested space?

 

Also, the data on which these studies are based on, are from the point of 2020 when 1st wave was dying down in these countries. These countries were already doing a much better job at containing the virus than we were and if you look at the citations of the study you have quoted, you will see the tolerances and approximations they have used to come up with this result.

Now in 2021 when India is at the height of the 2nd wave, people are not even afraid and the terms like "carrier droplet" and "volumetric dispersion" can change entirely with a small change in wind speed and height, these studies quite literally don't apply. And I assume most of the people must be living in houses which are elevated and hence, it is much more difficult for an aerosol based virus to entry in your house via a plume as compared to ground level.

 

Yes, the probability of getting infected in a car might still be less but just like when the probability getting corona was not much high, ignorance of small probabilities in a huge sample size creates devastation. We are basically experiencing it now and that is what these rules are trying to curb.

 

Now, even leaving all these points aside, the 2nd article you quoted mentions that almost 10% of the infections were found out to be from outdoor. Now do this study in Delhi with new parameters like density, distance, confidence levels and R factor and let's see what the number is. Even if the number remains the same, 10% of daily numbers is not insignificant.

Plus, the above studies did not even take the possibility of suspension of particles into account because these studies were not treating the virus as air-borne.

New studies are pointing that we need to be at least 10 feet apart instead of 6 and another set of studies showed how a person can be affected while being 25 feet away from another while just being in free air.

 

But no, we will not believe in these because it hampers our convenience. It hurts us too much to wear a mask while driving and hence we will call these rules asinine.

But we will still recommend it to others just to be on the safer side because who want's to take the responsibility.

Yeah, right.

[KunjanPSD]

Seriously at this point, the general population and even some members of this thread will believe what they choose to believe in.

Only prayers can save us now.

[KunjanPSD]

36 minutes ago, Walker said:

 

Dafuq is this response? I swear if I ever meet this MF I'll shove a red hot poker up his arse. Absolute dog sh*t.

 

Real life example of how politics corrupt the mind.

[mohit9206]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-working-18-19-hours-to-tackle-coronavirus-surge-piyush-goyal-11618793445517.html

Our PM is already working hard throughout the day towards this. So there is not much to worry about. Just take your usual precautions.

[rushab oswal]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by rushaboswal

[hsk_colossus]

 

[KnackChap]

Wishing Dr MMS sir a speedy recovery. 

[KunjanPSD]

27 minutes ago, AnK said:

As I said just no point scratching heads as to what is logical & what isn’t 

just do what you are being told to do 

 

Wearing mask inside a car or inside a helmet won’t kill you 

but Covid can kill you or someone around you 

 

So no point banging heads on wall getting deep into science 

 

Coz scientists themselves come up with a contradictory theory every now & then 

True. Rightly said.

Just take all the precautions you can, sooner we all do it sooner this will all come to an end.

Edited April 19, 2021 by KunjanPSD

[KnackChap]

 

??

[KnackChap]

May 1st. Vaccination for all above 18 begins. 

[KnackChap]

 

[KnackChap]

Private players also allowed to vaccinate. Price will be fixed by govt. 

[TRMNTR]

3 minutes ago, KnackChap said:

 

 

Amazing news! Also, a bit scary as well considering we'll have to step out of the house when there are so many +ve cases. Government should try home vaccination as well.

[TRMNTR]

2 minutes ago, KnackChap said:

Private players also allowed to vaccinate. Price will be fixed by govt. 

 

That is even better news! Doorstep vaccination should be an option soon!

[l33tmaniac]

6 minutes ago, KnackChap said:

 

 

Good news for sure. But if the scarcity is not addressed, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes like the PS5/RTX launch with extreme price gouging. 

[radicaldude]

Just now, l33tmaniac said:

 

Good news for sure. But if the scarcity is not addressed, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes like the PS5/RTX launch with extreme price gouging. 

 

Exactly. Need to take care of the shortages first. 

 

Maybe another diversionary tactic. 

[KunjanPSD]

Great news. I just hope that people just not flock to vaccination centres and supply keeps up.

[KnackChap]

Reading the press release but so far it seems.....

 

- manufacturers need to sell 50% of their stock to state govt and the remaining 50% to others.

- price will be fixed by govt even for private players

- states can directly source from suppliers, no central govt intervention.

- central govt vaccination drive will still continue for 45 and above people. 
 

 

 

[KnackChap]

Quote

The main elements of the  Liberalised and Accelerated Phase 3 Strategy of the National Covid-19 Vaccination program that would come in effect from 1st May 2021, are as follows:-

(i)      Vaccine manufacturers would supply 50% of their monthly Central Drugs Laboratory (CDL) released doses to Govt. of India and would be free to supply the remaining 50% doses to State Govts. and in the open market (hereinafter referred to as other than Govt. of India channel).

 (ii)    Manufacturers would transparently make an advance declaration of the price for 50% supply that would be available to State Govts. and in open market, before 1st May 2021. Based on this price, State governments, private hospitals, industrial establishments etc would be able to procure vaccine doses from the manufacturers. Private Hospitals would have to procure their supplies of Covid-19 vaccine exclusively from the 50% supply earmarked for other than Govt. of India channel. Private Vaccination providers shall transparently declare their self-set vaccination price. The eligibility through this channel would be opened up to all adults, i.e. everyone above the age of 18.

(iii)    Vaccination shall continue as before in Govt. of India vaccination centres, provided free of cost to the eligible population as defined earlier i.e. Health Care Workers (HCWs), Front Line Workers (FLWs) and all people above 45 years of age.

(iv)    All vaccination (through Govt. of India and Other than Govt. of India channel) would be part of the National Vaccination Programme, and mandated to follow all protocol such as being captured on CoWIN platform, linked to AEFI reporting and all other prescribed norms. Stocks and price per vaccination applicable in all vaccination centres will also have to be reported real-time.

(v)     The division of vaccine supply 50% to Govt. of India and 50% to other than Govt. of India channel would be applicable uniformly across for all vaccines manufactured in the country. However Government of India will allow the imported fully ready to use vaccines to be entirely utilized in the other than Govt. of India channel.

(vi)    Govt. of India, from its share, will allocate vaccines to States/UTs based on the criteria of extent of infection (number of active Covid cases) & performance (speed of administration). Wastage of vaccine will also be considered in this criteria and will affect the criteria negatively. Based on the above criteria, State-wise quota would be decided and communicated to the States adequately in advance.

(vii) Second dose of all existing priority groups i.e. HCWs, FLWs and population above 45 years, wherever it has become due, would be given priority, for which a specific and focused strategy would be communicated to all stakeholders.

(viii) This policy would come into effect from 1st May 2021 and will be reviewed from time to time.

 

 

[l33tmaniac]

6 minutes ago, KnackChap said:

Reading the press release but so far it seems.....

 

- manufacturers need to sell 50% of their stock to state govt and the remaining 50% to others.

- price will be fixed by govt even for private players

- states can directly source from suppliers, no central govt intervention.

- central govt vaccination drive will still continue for 45 and above people. 
 

 

 

 

My brother is a medico in Tanjore (central TN) and he says his hospital is charging 3k for a Covid 19 swab test. And this is one of the most prominent and well known private players in the region. If the govt doest strictly regulate the price, it could be far far worse.